How Fast is the Web Growing?

cartoon of the invisible man reading a book.

When attempting to estimate the growth of resources and users on the Internet, it is good to keep in mind the words 'persistent uncertainty'.  Things are changing so quickly, that there are no exact numbers, only educated guesses.  However, by any measure, the growth of the Internet has been explosive.  The Internet is spreading faster than cable TV.  Let's consider two measures of growth; the size of the collection as represented by the number of servers and pages of information on the Internet, and the number of patrons or Internet users.

A recent Online Computer Library Center (OCLC) study concluded that the size of the net itself had begun to stabilize. OCLC estimated 3,080,000 sites in June 2002.  This represents a slight (1%) decrease in number when compared to the previous year.  (See Figures 1 and 2.) At the same time the study found an increase in the size of each website.  OCLC believes the Internet should be seen as a maturing technology, "Individuals, organizations, and businesses are no longer engaged in the rush to 'get on the Web' witnessed five to ten years ago. Most people who want to establish a Web presence have already done so. The focus now is on refining and expanding that presence, and figuring out how to utilize Web technologies effectively to fulfill mission-critical objectives."   (From Trends in the Evolution of the Public Web.  Available online at: http://dlib.org/dlib/april03/lavoie/04lavoie.html.)

bar graph. number of public websites in millions. 1998 1.5 million, 2002 3 million

Figure 1: OCLC estimates of public websites.

bar graph: public year on year growth grates. Declining growth. 98-99 53 percent growth. 2000 - 2001 6 percent

Figure 2: OCLC Estimates of the rate of growth of the public web.

So just how large is the collection of information on the web? 

We estimate about 7 million new pages go online each day.  We also estimate there are between 3 and 6 billion pages of information available on the public web. (For more on this topic see the IMSA Micro Module: How Many Pages Are There On The WWW?)

As we begin the 21st Century, we are faced with an online resource bonanza.  As the collection of Internet based resources grows, so does the population of patrons. Clearly, locating and evaluating online resources is becoming a daily necessity around the globe.

A Nation Online: How Americans Are Expanding Their Use of the Internet, is a recent U.S. Government study that will help us understand the growth of net users.  This study is available online: http://www.ntia.doc.gov/ntiahome/dn/.  The study estimates that Internet use in the United States is growing at a rate of 2 million users each month.  The study found that more Americans than ever (66% or 174 million) are using computers.  54% of the population (143 million Americans) used the Internet in September 2001. This was a 26% increase over August 2000. (See Figure 3.)   A government census conducted in 2001, found that 46.9% of Illinois households were connected to the Internet. (Mississippi was lowest at 36.1% and Alaska the highest with 64.1%.) Clearly many Americans are using computers and the Internet at home and at work.

line graph: percent of us households with computer and internet connetion 1985 - 2001. 1984 9 percent had computers. 2002 59 percent have computers. 1998 19 percent have internet, 2002 51 percent have internet.

Figure 3: U.S. Department of Commerce's Census Bureau computer / Internet use estimates


Authored by Dennis O'Connor 2003